Predicting a Pandemic

Article: Anticipating the Next Pandemic by David Quammen Sunday Review New York Times September 23, 2012   Key Ideas: The recent third death of visitors to Yosemite National Park from hantavirus pulmonary syndrome raises the question of how virologists, molecular geneticists, epidemiologists, and disease ecologists are attempting to spot the next big pandemic. There is broad consensus on what will cause the next event: (1) The source will likely be a virus, not a bacterium. Specifically it is likely to be an RNA virus as opposed to a DNA virus. (2) The virus will be zoonotic, spread from nonhuman animals to humans. While the virus that causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome is common it is not easy to spread and therefore is not likely to evolve into a pandemic. The same is true of Ebola. However a variant of H1N2 flu bug could be an example of an influenza that is "protean and explosive." Among the personal precautions mentioned to avoid zoonotic infection is wearing a mask when you sweep out an old shed.