Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Risk and Probability: The Numbers Game in Life and Health

A Crash Course In Playing the Numbers by Abigail Zuger, M.D.  The New York Times.  January 28, 2013.

This is a review of the book, "Naked Statistics," by Charles Wheelan.  While this book is not primarily about health, it supports the general idea that staying well is all about probability and risk, not certitude.  Indeed, the overall theme, according to the review, is the benefits of achieving a statistical understanding of life.  In terms of health Wheelan shows the health importance of distinguishing between mean and median, between correlation and causality.  For me, one of the most interesting parts of the review was the inclusion of a chart illustrating nonlinear relationships and reverse causality of the effects of golf lessons on scores, the lesson being that more money spent does not translate into improved results.  The health and medical applications are clear.

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